تقدير وتحليل العلاقة بين الإنفاق العام والنمو الاقتصادي دراسة قياسية على الاقتصاد الليبي للفترة 2000- 2023

Abstract

This Study  aims to estimate and analyze  the relationship between public spending and economic growth in the Libyan economy over the period (2000-2023), by employing  the Autoregressive Distributed  Lag (ARDL) model and the Unrestricted Error Correction Model (UECM). The findings reveal the presence of cointegration between the two study variables , reflecting a long-run equilibrium relationship between public spending and gross domestic product (GDP). Moreover, the results of the error correction model indicate that the error correction term is negative and statistically significant at various significance levels which confirms the short-run stability condition .The error condition coefficient suggests that approximately 58% Of short-run disequilibria are corrected within one year, implying a relatively rapid adjustment back to equilibrium .Furthermore , the statistical significance of the indent variable reflects the model's reliability in explaining the short-run relationship among the variables.