تأثير العمق المالي على النمو الاقتصادي في ليبيا خلال الفترة من (1984 - 2024): دراسة قياسية باستخدام نموذج ARDL

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the impact of financial depth indicators on economic growth in Libya over the period 1984–2024, employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and Error Correction Model (ECM) techniques. The study considers four financial depth variables: banking transaction ratio, size of the banking sector’s assets, total credit, and broad money supply, alongside oil price as a control variable. The results indicate that the banking transaction ratio exerts a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth in both the long and short run, whereas the size of the banking sector’s assets, total credit, and broad money supply show significant negative effects in the long run. Oil price, however, exhibits no statistically significant relationship with real GDP, suggesting a limited influence of oil shocks on Libya’s economic growth during the examined period. Based on these findings, the study recommends enhancing the quality of financial intermediation, directing credit toward productive sectors with high value added, restructuring monetary expansion policies to align with real growth, and promoting financial inclusion alongside digital banking transformation.