أسعار النفط والإنفاق الحكومي والنمو الاقتصادي في ليبيا: تحليل ديناميكيات الأجلين القصير والطويل خلال الفترة (2024 –1984)

Abstract

 This research aims to analyze the impact of global oil prices,   government spending, and trade openness on economic growth in Libya during the period (1984-2024), using the autoregressive distributed gaps (ARDL) model and the bounds test, while verifying the robustness of the results using the FMOLS, DOLS, and (CCR) estimators, in addition to applying an expanded set of structural refractions tests and conducting a complementary analysis using the vector autoregressive (VAR) model.

The results showed the existence of a long-term cointegration relationship. between the variables at a significance level of 5%, which confirms the existence of a stable balanced relationship despite the Libyan economy’s exposure to structural shocks during the study period. The results also showed that government spending represents the main driver of economic growth in the long term, as its elasticity reached (0.911), while the impact of oil prices appeared mainly in the short term with a factor of (0.299), which indicates that the impact of oil shocks is transmitted to economic activity to a large extent through the government spending channel, while trade openness did not show a significant long-term impact. Statistics, and the error correction model showed that the speed of adjustment towards equilibrium amounted to about (16.6%) annually, equivalent to a gradual correction period of approximately six years.

Structural regression tests also revealed a fundamental shift in the level of equilibrium in 2011, without this leading to the collapse of the long-term co-integration relationship. The study recommends enhancing the efficiency of government spending by directing resources towards capital investment and productive sectors, and adopting precautionary financial rules that limit the transmission of oil price fluctuations to the local economy, in addition to accelerating efforts to diversify the economic base and sources of energy. Growth.